Why Tiger won't win another Major!

Why Tiger will struggle to win another Major

Last week at Torrey Pines, where Tiger looked back to his old ways the commentary were endlessly talking about how he has always gone on to win 4 events but a different type of Wood was making headlines this side of the Pond. 

  Chris Wood claimed his maiden tour victory on the European Tour at the Qatar Masters in sublime style.  Leading by three going into the final round, he had the unfortunate average of shooting 76 when leading an event.  He overcame this by eagling the last to win by one from George Coetzee.  Wood has found form of late, no doubt due to his win on the Asian Tour at the end of last season, and this shows how much confidence a win can give an up-and-comer like Chris Wood.  The first win means everything.  That first win, on any Tour, gives a player the confidence and believe that they can win, that all their practice was worth it, that they can succeed as a Professional Golfer.  I have huge admiration for Chris Wood; he is a local lad to me, hailing from Bristol, just 30 minutes from me.  I have had the pleasure of watching him practice and indeed play at my home club and there was no doubt in my mind that he was capable of winning.

 On the PGA Tour, Tiger was back to his best.  His driving and wedge play, which have been disastrous of late did not fail him as he went on to claim his 75^th title in America.  However, I am unconvinced by Tiger's latest triumph, while I have the utmost respect for how immensely talented and single minded Tiger Woods is as a golfer, to me his victory is no different to a 14 handicapper winning a monthly medal or a challenge tour graduate claiming a  European Tour victory, a flash in the pan!  While there is no doubt in my mind Tiger will go on to beat Sam Snead’s record 82 PGA victories, I feel that Nicklaus’s Major record is perfectly safe.  There are several reasons for this, primarily which is his driving is so inconsistent and that he struggles on the last day, even in an ordinary Tour Event.  There was a time when, like Monday this week, Tiger would lead by 7 and he would go on to win by 10.  Instead Tiger had a comparatively dreadful back nine which ended in a 4 shot victory.  This is his first victory in the last two years in which he has lead going into the final round, which to me shows that the pressure gets to him that little bit more than it used to and while it is only an assumption it is not that farfetched to argue that Tiger only won because he had such a big lead to begin with.   Tiger played impeccably on the first two rounds of the Majors last year and yet had less than impeccable finishes because he struggled in the final round, often shooting low to mid 70s.  I have made it clear in previous posts that I am no Tiger fan, but everyone is entitled to their opinion and this is mine. The field of players is too strong and unafraid of him and his last round average is shocking.  Tiger is almost playing these final rounds like he is winning events and Majors for the first time.  His aura and confidence are gone!

 

           

 

Week 3; the Week of Comebacks

While many would argue that the biggest story of the Abu Dhabi championship was the early exit of McIlroy (fresh from his multimillion dollar deal with Nike) and Woods, I believe that last week was the week of comebacks on both sides of the pond.  Jamie Donaldson came back from 2 shots to beat Justin Rose by 1 shot despite a bogey on the final hole in the Abu Dhabi Championship.  However, career comebacks were also plentiful this week in Abu Dhabi, namely David Howell and Michael Campbell, who both posted top finishes.  However it is plain to see the re-entering the winners circle is easier said than done.  Howell played well all week and for a time took the lead on the final day after a flawless opening ten holes of 5 under but an ugly 4 putt from around 5 feet saw him slip into a tie for 6^th.  A few months ago i asked the question “whatever happened to Michael Campbell?”  That was when he had lead going into the final round of the Hong Kong Open and had slumped to a final round of 2 over but to be honest I expected that to be a flash in the pan for the 2005 U.S Open Champion.  On the contrary he has regularly finished high up on subsequent leader boards and long may this continue for both Howell and Campbell.  I shall watch with interest over the coming weeks because I’m sure a win is just around the corner for these once fine players. 

Similar circumstances occurred in the Humana Challenge on the PGA Tour.  This is one of my least favourite events on Tour; I am not a fan of how easy it is set up although I understand that this is for the benefit of the amateur players and I think the altruistic nature of the event is amiable but I simply prefer Professionals to be challenged.  On the other hand I enjoy the cut after three days rather than the usual two.  Scott Stallings seemed like he was going to walk it, leading by 5 going into the final day and bidding to be the first man since Super Mex to go bogey free for 72 holes.  However several players had other ideas.  One that caught my eye was Stewart Cink, playing in the final group and looking for his first top 5 finish since winning The Open Championship in 2009!!  His career also appears to be on a comeback much like afore mentioned European Tour Players.  However, within the Tournament itself, Stallings lead was quickly lessened by a myriad of low scores including three 62s!  Unheralded David Lingmerth was one of those players who shot 62 to post -25, Brian Gay shot 63 to match that score having three putted the last for par and finally Charles Howell III finished on   -25.  This left Stallings needing a birdie 4 down the last to clinch it by one shot, only to hook his 6 iron into the pond (a fate that was then repeated by Lingmerth in the playoff) and miss his 9 footer to join the playoff.  Brian Gay eventually triumphed over Howell III with a birdie on the second playoff hole to claim his 4^th PGA Tour victory. 

This was an eventful week in the golfing world and I am always interested in what various events can potentially show us about the upcoming season. This week has undoubtedly showed me that players of a certain calibre are never really past it and it would not surprise me if we see a few more long forgotten faces claim an event or at least post some solid finishes.  This week has also confirmed the point I made after the first PGA tour event in Hawaii; that there is so much strength in depth on both tours that unheard of names and rookies and all manner of “journey men” Pros will make appearances this year, whether it be in the winner’s circle or just establishing themselves as someone to watch this season.                   

Hawaii 2.0 and the Ryder Cup Reaction

In the first full field event of 2013 on the PGA Tour, Russ Henley shot his 3^rd 63 of the week, including a blistering 5 under for the last five holes to deny Tim Clark and claim his first Tour win in his first start at the Sony Open.  While the field was not as star-studded as it might have been, it was still an impressive event to watch and for me personally, I could not have asked for a more fitting example for the point I made last week- anybody and everybody is going to win events this year because Pro golf has never seen such strength in depth on both Tours. 

Louis Oosthuizen also opened up his account with a solid win in Durban at the Volvo Golf Champions event.  A shaky 74 in the 3^rd round had left him 5 shots behind last week’s winner, Scot Jamieson but an impressive 66 was enough to claim the title by one shot.  I expect big things from Oosthuizen this year, his swing his rhythmical and simple and he putts very well.  He is my pick to win another Major, he came very close at the Masters and I think that he will either do it this year at Augusta or he will claim another Claret Jug. 

While some magnificent golf was being played in South Africa and Hawaii, a much more important event was being discussed widely- that of European Ryder Cup Captain.  Early contenders had been McGinley and Darren Clarke, both fine players, well respected by the potential team and each has fine individual Ryder Cup experience.  Then there was talk about Monty returning as the event is to be held in Scotland and although he demands much respect from the team there were those who spoke out publically against his return.  McIlroy was one of those, explaining his view on Twitter and other social media that he believed Ryder Cup captaincy should be a onetime thing.  Darren Clarke then withdrew himself saying he would be focussing on making the team and as a friend of mine rightly pointed out, the 2011 Open Champion would be much better suited to captain the side in the States where he is immensely popular.  There has been some talk that McIlroy had too much influence on the eventual pick of McGinley and how much truth there is in that I don’t know but for me that was not the biggest issue.  While I think McGinley is a fine choice and I have little doubt he will be able to steer the team to victory, another Scot was overlooked- Sandy Lyle.  The two time major winner supposedly scuppered his chances when he walked in at the Open a few years ago but how much did that really matter?  He was one of the “Big 5” in the ‘80s who paved the way for European dominance on Tour and in the Ryder Cup and I am at a loss to explain why one withdrawal from a tournament should deny him an honour he definitely deserves.  Players withdraw from tournaments all the time and I’ll admit they usually have better excuses than “the rain was in my glasses and I couldn’t see”  and I will also admit that he could have handled the media better afterwards but to be overlooked for this prestigious role is a little harsh really.  Don’t you think?           

Why 2013 will be better than 2012- what Hawaii showed us

Dustin Johnson claimed his 7^th PGA Tour title at the weather delayed season opener, the Tournament of Champions, finishing 4 shots ahead of an injured Steve Stricker; reigning FedEx cup champion, Brandt Snedeker, continued his 2012 form finishing a shot further back in outright third. 

Steve Stricker admitted that he was suffering with nerve damage in his leg and was unsure that he would even be able to complete 18 holes, so his 4^th top 5 finish  in the event was a surprise.  He now looks to take a 6-week break in a season in which he only expects to compete in about 12 events. 

As numerous people on twitter have pointed out, Dustin Johnson has achieved two very interesting accomplishments with his win this week.  Firstly he now has the most Tour wins of anyone under 30, one more than McIlroy who has six wins.  But, perhaps more interestingly, Dustin Johnson has now won all of the last 3 PGA Tour events that have been shortened to 54 holes.  While I don’t wish to detract from his victories, some people might argue that he struggles to play four rounds especially if they remember his US Open meltdown in 2010.   The stats however don’t quite match- he was 36^th in final round scoring average in 2012 with an average score of 70.434, granted he didn’t have a full season, but it is something that will be interesting to look for as 2013 season unfolds.   

What can the season opener tell us?

There has been a lot of talk that the Tournament of Champions needs to be moved to later in the season because the weather often plays a factor and it often fails to attract the eligible big names; McIlroy and Woods who won 4 Events and a Major collectively in 2012 did not play for example.  However, I think that it works as a season opener and I like that you have to earn your place from the season before.  I understand that it is always a little disappointing not to get the big names but this is the same at all events and this event would really not work midway through the season.  However, because there is such a limited field it does not really give us an indicator of who might do well this season.  Obviously following their performances, Johnson, Stricker and Snedeker are firm favourites to do well but based on previous seasons this was a no brainer anyway, no great incites based on last week’s results.  However, I thought the field was very diverse and this is a sign of the strength in depth on the Tour.  There were proven winners in Dustin Johnson, Stricker and Poulter; Major winners like Bubba and Bradley but there was also new winners such as Charlie Beljan and Tommy Gainey.  There were also simple effective golf swings like that of Stricker and Snedeker but players such as Gainey and Bubba who swing it their own way also performed well and I think that this shows how much strength and depth there is on tour at the moment.  While the proven champions will always be the favourites, literally anybody could win on tour this year and that’s why I think 2013 will be an even better season than 2012.   

The Stats- and What They Really Mean

 Before the highly anticipated 2013 Tour season commences I thought I would take a look at the statistics of the PGA Tour for 2012.  

    So what is the most important statistic? Which stat list do you have to top to ensure a good season, besides the money list of course.  There are lots of stats that are calculated nowadays, some of which can be quite confusing; such as strokes gained putting, which is calculated by deducting the number of putts taken from the average number expected to take based on last years data.   Some stats can seem fairly irrelevant and the achievement of topping the list in some things can have little or no impact on how successful you are in that season.  Take Driving distance for example; unsurprisingly Bubba Watson topped this stat averaging an impressive 315 yards off the tee and while no one will argue he had an unsuccessful season (Maters Champion if nothing else) he beat Charlie Beljan to the top spot who had a comparatively disappointing year finishing 160^th despite averaging 311 yards of the tee.  So while hitting a wedge into most greens seems like an advantage, it doesn’t count for much in the long run; you need a full arsenal of tricks.  This is where the “total driving stat” comes in, a combination of distance AND accuracy, the top of this list for 2012 is Boo Weekley who doesn’t exactly prove any point that accuracy is more important but there are certainly many more household names at the top of the list; Tiger Woods, Jason Dufner and Louis Ooosthuizen to name just a few.  Jonas Blixt is a great example of a player who tops a worthwhile statistic and yet his struggling performance in others prevents him from making a regular appearance in the winner’s circle.  While Blixt may not be known to everyone, he undoubtedly topped the stat which most of us would agree is most important; putting.  Blixt’s impressive putting average of 1.71 per hole should have helped him, much like it did Brandt Snedeker in 2^nd (1.725) who won the FedEx Cup, Zach Johnson in 3^rd ( 1.726) won twice last season and Webb Simpson in 5^th (1. 735) who won the US Open.  So why didn’t it?  Blixt also topped the sand save statistic and this is no coincidence, Blixt simply missed too many greens (apparently a lot of them in bunkers) and therefore, most of his one putts were for par saves rather than birdies.  This is the big problem with the stats; they are almost useless unless put together.  Rory McIlroy in 2011 failed to finish inside the top 100 in putting stats and yet his impressive accuracy off the tee and greens in regulation allowed him to claim his maiden major victory.  The likes of Luke Donald, Webb Simpson, Keegan Bradley and Steve Stricker rank consistently high in all stats  You can’t hit 15 greens and yet take 36 putts, the same as you cannot have 24 putts and miss 15 greens.  You will have a better score with the latter scenario but those who win most and rack up the trophies and money are those who have little or no weaknesses.  I feel like the stats are quoted too often, especially in commentary and that on their own they are virtually meaningless.  For example, Jonas Blixt led the stats in putting and yet was 134^th in GIR.  No doubt he will feature at some point with a 10ft putt to get in contention or something like that and a commentator will probably mention that he led this stat in 2012 and therefore is likely to make the putt.  However he misses enough greens that his impressive putting stat could just mean he is a good chipper and therefore all his one putts could in theory be tap in’s- not so likely to make that 10ft putt now.   Not to focus too much on Blixt, there are those who have very solid stats in putting and GIR and yet are relatively unheard of because they are not in the winners circle regularly.   What’s their problem? Maybe it’s because they don’t get it close enough; proximity to the hole is an equally important stat, especially at the Professional level.  While the pros hole their fare share of 30ft putts, they are much better (as we all are) from 10ft.  And yet despite this, I can almost guarantee that in some show somebody will say, “ he is definitely going to win in the future because he putts great and hits greens”.   that's not necessarily true because to win you need to make birdies, and you just don't make that many birdies if you hit the green but only to 30ft rather than 10ft.  

Stats are great if you know how to use them and I would advise people to keep their stats every round they play, its a great way to see which part of your game needs work but don't neglect your putting if you have 24 putts in one round, it could just be you are a good chipper, and if you still can't break 80 with 24 putts then your long game needs work to hit more GIR.  Don't let the stats of 2012 mislead your Fantasy team selection or betting habits either, the stats are not always so easy to analyse.

FF


My apologies to Jonas Blixt, until the Hyundai Tournaments of Champions begun I was unaware that he was a winner last season.  For this reason he is obviously not a good example of my point about the putting stats but my point still stands; good putting stats are useless unless you have good GIR stats too.